US CPI in May Misses Expectations Across the Board, Copper Prices Under Pressure Amid Macro and Tariff Uncertainties [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

    SMM June 12 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,640.5/mt, hitting a high of $9,705.0/mt during the session, dipping to a low of $9,614.0/mt at the start of the session, and eventually closing at $9,647.0/mt, down 0.80%. Trading volume was 22,671 lots, and open interest was 288,336 lots. The overall trend saw prices initially hit a low before surging higher, then fluctuating downward, with significant price volatility, presenting a certain fluctuating downward trend. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,740 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 78,800 yuan/mt during the session, dipping to a low of 78,510 yuan/mt, and eventually closing at 78,570 yuan/mt, down 0.77%. Trading volume was 40,646 lots, and open interest was 202,372 lots. The overall trend was a fluctuating downward movement after the opening, with prices gradually declining amid price fluctuations. On the macro front, US CPI data for May came in weaker than expected across the board. The year-on-year unadjusted CPI for May was recorded at 2.4%, against market expectations of 2.5%. The month-on-month unadjusted CPI for May was recorded at 0.1%, against market expectations of 0.2%. The year-on-year unadjusted core CPI for May was recorded at 2.8%, against market expectations of 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month core CPI for May was recorded at 0.1%, against market expectations of 0.3%. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index declined. However, market concerns about the future economic outlook intensified, along with worries about potential US tariffs on copper, leading copper prices to decline under pressure. On the fundamental front, in terms of supply, the availability of standard-quality copper remained tight, while market trading activity was generally moderate amid high copper prices. Overall, market concerns have largely been digested. With the US dollar index weakening, copper prices are expected to stabilize today, and a sustained decline is unlikely.